Summary
- We are very pleased with +36.4% total returns for U.S. large cap equities and +10.4% total returns for municipal bonds over the past 12 months ending 9/30.
- S&P 500 earnings growth consensus forecasts are +9.8% in 2024, +13.3% in 2025, +13.2% in 2026, and the U.S. economy continues to outperform expectations.
- Homeowners saw values of their houses appreciate 54.4% over the past five years, which provides another positive wealth effect.
- The Fed began a new interest rate-cutting cycle because CPI inflation keeps falling (now 2.4%) and unemployment is gradually rising (3-month average rate rose to 4.1% from its 12-month low of 3.8%).
- We believe these tailwinds to markets will persist into 2025.
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